Dad on the Rise

Posts Tagged ‘Pick of the Week’

I decided to spare everyone my Guinea Pick of the Week as I am in a super slump. However, I had a pretty good week in my pick’em pools so there will be one again next week. Oh yeah, for the rest of the year it would be wise to pick against the Giants. Believe me this is very painful for me to admit.

This week’s Guinea Pick is the Monday Night match-up between the Houston Texans and the Tennessee Titans.  The Texans are at home and giving the Titans 4.5 points.  I like the Titans to win outright for a few simple reasons.  Firstly, the Titans are finally clicking.  It was unbelievable that they started the season 0-6.  I was at the game when the Jets beat them at the Meadowlands and one player lost the game for the Titans as their returner fumbled twice on kicks, one punt and one kickoff, which doomed the Titans.  The Titans are way too good and well coached to go 0-6 and seem to finally be clicking and have since won 3 in a row.

Secondly, Houston, though 5-4, are not playing up to their potential.  Before the season the Texans were a popular playoff pick and looking to be a sleeper team coming of a solid year and the development of players like Mario Williams, Andre Johnson, DeMeco Ryans, and Steve Slaton.  Instead of opening eyes they have yawned their way to a 5-4 record generally beating lesser teams and losing to good teams.  They only team of note that they beat was the Bengals.  It is almost as if the Texans don’t know how good they really are.

Finally, the Titans lost to the Texans by 3 at home and this is payback time.  The Titans have the hot hand and come into the week with the something to prove.  Look for the Titans to win Monday on national television.  Titans 24 Texans 17.

Last week I predicted the Texans (9.5) to win outright over the Colts.  The final score was Colts 20 Texans 17.  I was half right.

This week’s match-up: St. Louis Rams (13.5) vs. New Orleans Saints

I like the Saints to not only win, but to cover the spread with ease.  I wouldn’t be surprised if the Saints score 100 points.  Seriously though this game has the makings of an old fashioned butt whoopin.  The Saints march into St. Louis with the number 1 rated offense in the league.  We all know they can pass, number 5 this year, as last year Drew Brees had a season that was only matched by the Dan Marino, but the Saints have found a ground game as well.  The rushing attack is number 2 in the NFL with HBs Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell heading the both with just under 500 yards each.  Reggie Bush even has 4 rushing TDs and a 4.0 yards per rush average.  And when you match their potent rushing against the St. Louis 28th ranked rush defense you have the makings of a long day.

The Rams run the ball very well too, with Steven Jackson leading the way with 784 total rushing yards and a 4.8 yard per rush average giving the Rams the 9th best ground attack in the league.  Unfortunately, the Saints boast the 1 ranked rushing defense and when you couple that with the Rams worst passing game in the league, the Rams are in for a long day.

The Rams are playing at home and are being given 13.5 points and you may think that they could at least win with the spread, but I think the Saints will have little problem covering.  The Rams have scored a total of 77 points all year giving the an average of 9.6 points per game.  On the other hand, the Saints have scored 303 points for an average of 37.9 points per game.  Need I say more.

Final Score: Saints 48 Rams 6

I am not sure if this is the proper spelling of the derogatory  term for Italian American, but it isn’t really important.  The Guinea Pick of the Week came about from my Colombian friend at work.  We are in a football Pick’Em Pool at work and each week, in his very thick Colombian accent,  he asks me for my Gimme Pick – a definite “gonna happen” pick in the weekly football match ups. However, with his accent it sounds like he is saying Guinea Pick.  Of course , as everyone will soon find out, I am a sarcastic ass and make a big deal of him calling me a Guinea.  We have worked together for years so I don’t phase him when I threaten to go to HR.

This inspired me to start my newest weekly post, The “Guinea” Pick of the Week.  Every week during football season I will post ( bright and early from now on) my pick of the week.  If this takes off I will expand to other sports after football ends.

Here is how it works, every Sunday morning I will examine a football match-up and give my pick.  This pick is with the spread that gets locked in my football pool on Wednesday.  It is either an upset or a favored team covering an usually big spread.  No easy way out picks but rather a pick that forces me to go out on a limb.

The first match-up I am choosing is Houston @ Indianapolis with Indy giving Houston 9.5 points.  Houston is (5-3) this year and Indy is (7-0).   I am picking Houston to not just cover the spread, but to win outright.  Houston is a very solid team who is hot right now.  Houston has won 3 in a row highlighted by a win against Cincinnati (5-2) in Cincy.  Indy’s schedule has been pretty week so far winning against only one winning team, the Arizona Cardinals (4-3) who are very inconsistent.   Historically, Houston always plays Indy tough despite not being very talented.  This year Houston, a very popular playoff pick, comes in with a team that is solid at most positions.  They can run and pass on offense with great underrated players like WR Andre Johnson and RB Steve Slaton.  The Houston line protects QB Matt Schaub well allowing him an extra second or two to find his receivers.  Houston defends the pass well, which is Indy’s strength, however, Houston is poor against the run.  This bodes well for the Texans because the Colts are last in the league in rushing.  Indy comes into the game with some key injuries on the defense and special teams highlighted by the losses of K Adam Vinatieri, S Bob Sanders, and CB Marlin Jackson.  Houston comes into the game with many injuries as well, but have had their reserves overachieve and have still maintained a relatively high level of play.

Guinea Pick of the Week: Houston to win outright against Indianapolis (-9.5)